United States Senate election in Alaska, 2008
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| United States Senate election in Alaska, 2008 |
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| November 4, 2008 | ||||
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| Nominee | Mark Begich | Ted Stevens | ||
| Party | Democratic | Republican | ||
| Popular vote | 151,767 | 147,814 | ||
| Percentage | 47.77% | 46.52% | ||
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The United States Senate election in Alaska was held on November 4, 2008. It was one of the ten Senate races that Senator John Ensign of Nevada, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, predicted as being most competitive.[1]
The party Primary elections were held on Tuesday, August 26.[2] Ted Stevens sought re-election as the Republican candidate, challenged by Democratic candidate Mark Begich, the mayor of Anchorage.
CQ Politics had rated this race as Leans Democrat.[3] The Cook Political Report considered it Lean Democrat.[4] The Rothenberg Political Report consided it a Lean Takeover.[5]
On October 27, 2008, Stevens was convicted on seven charges of ethics violations and corruption.[6][7] If reelected, Stevens would have been the first convicted felon elected to the United States Senate.[8] On November 18, 2008, the Associated Press projected that Begich had defeated Stevens, making Stevens the longest-serving U.S. Senator ever to lose a re-election bid.[9] Stevens conceded the race to Begich on November 19.
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[edit] Political environment
The FBI investigation and subsequent seven count indictment of Ted Stevens, as well as investigation of the state's only Representative, Don Young (R), has generated some negative feelings in Alaska towards Republicans, even among Republican primary voters. Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (son of the last Democratic Rep. from Alaska, Nick Begich) was courted by both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, but in February 2008 announced the formation of an exploratory committee for the Senate seat. The possible Democratic field also included State Rep. Eric Croft and State Senators Hollis French and Johnny Ellis.[10] Former Minority Leader of the Alaska House of Representatives Ethan Berkowitz was a possible candidate, but decided to challenge Don Young instead. Sensing discontentment within the GOP, conservative Republican Dave Cuddy announced his candidacy for U.S. Senate in December 2007.
Stevens is perceived by many as corrupt, but is also highly regarded by many Alaskans for his ability to steer federal funding toward the state; he is the longest-serving Republican in the Senate (first elected in 1968), and through his seniority he has amassed a great deal of influence there. The selection of Alaskan Governor Sarah Palin as the vice-presidential running-mate of Republican presidential candidate John McCain in late August 2008 coincided with a substantial improvement in Stevens' performance in opinion polls. A poll in August showed Begich with a 17% lead, but in early September a poll from the same source showed Begich leading Stevens by only 3%. Begich's campaign and some observers attributed this change to Palin's popularity and the enthusiasm stimulated by her selection, although Palin's own reputation was partially based on her perceived opposition to Stevens or distance from him. The Stevens campaign disputed the low numbers shown in the August poll and said that the numbers had improved in September because Stevens had begun heavily campaigning. His campaign also presented the relationship between Palin and Stevens as positive, contrary to some portrayals.[11]
Stevens was convicted of seven felony counts of failing to report gifts on October 27, 2008. This was considered a serious setback in his already difficult bid for re-election; he had requested and received a quick trial in hopes of winning an acquittal before election day.[12] After the verdict, Stevens maintained his innocence and said that he was still running for re-election.[13]
[edit] Candidates
- Alaskan Independence Party
- Democratic Party
- Mark Begich: Anchorage Mayor[14]
Lost primary
- Ray Metcalfe: Former Alaska State Representative and founder of the Republican Moderate Party of Alaska[15]
- Frank Vondersaar: Senate nominee in 2002
- Independent
- Ted Gianoutsos
- Libertarian Party
- Republican Party
- Ted Stevens: Incumbent
Lost primary
- Michael D. Corey
- David Cuddy: Former state legislator[18]
- Gerald Heikes: Minister
- Rick Sikma: Pastor (on leave for Senate race)
- Vic Vickers
- Richard Wanda
With three and a half weeks to go before the primary, Stevens still held a large polling lead over chief rival Dave Cuddy, 59% to 19%.[19] Political newcomer Vic Vickers said on July 28 that he expected to pour $750 000 of his own money into his bid to defeat Stevens.[20] According to Rasmussen polling of Alaskans, Cuddy "does nearly as well against Begich" as Stevens, trailing Begich 50% to 35%, while Vickers trailed the expected Democratic nominee 55% to 22%.[21]
In the Republican primary on August 26, results from 70.5% of precincts showed Stevens winning with 63% of the vote; Cuddy had 28% and Vickers had 6%.[22]
[edit] Polling
| Poll Source | Dates administered | Democrat: Mark Begich | Republican: Ted Stevens |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 28 - October 30, 2008 | 58% | 36% | |
| October 28, 2008 | 52% | 44% | |
| October 14 - October 16, 2008 | 48% | 46% | |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 6, 2008 | 48% | 49% |
| September 15 - September 17, 2008 | 50% | 44% | |
| September 9, 2008 | 48% | 46% | |
| Ivan Moore Research | August 30 - September 2, 2008 | 49% | 46% |
| Ivan Moore Research | July 31, 2008 | 56% | 35% |
| Rasmussen Reports | July 30, 2008 | 50% | 37% |
| Rasmussen Reports | July 17, 2008 | 52% | 44% |
| July 14 - July 16, 2008 | 47% | 45% | |
| Rasmussen Reports | June 16, 2008 | 44% | 46% |
| Rasmussen Reports | May 14, 2008 | 47% | 45% |
| Research 2000 | May 12 - 14, 2008 | 48% | 43% |
| Hellenthal & Associates, DSCC | May 6 - 10, 2008 | 51% | 44% |
| Rasmussen Reports | April 7, 2008 | 45% | 46% |
| Research 2000 | December 3 - 6, 2007 | 47% | 41% |
[edit] Election results
[edit] ADL primary
The ADL ballot contained all of the primary candidates for the Alaska Democratic Party, the Alaskan Independence Party, and Libertarian Party of Alaska.
| Alaska ADL senatorial primary, 2008[23] | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | Percentage | |
| Democratic | Mark Begich | 63,747 | 84.12% | |
| Democratic | Ray Metcalfe | 5,480 | 7.23% | |
| Alaskan Independence | Bob Bird | 4,216 | 5.56% | |
| Libertarian | Fredrick Haase | 1,375 | 1.81% | |
| Democratic | Frank Vondersaar | 965 | 1.27% | |
| Totals | 75,783 | 100.00% | ||
[edit] Republican primary
| Alaska Republican senatorial primary, 2008[23] | ||
|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
| Ted Stevens (incumbent) | 66,900 | 63.52% |
| David Cuddy | 28,364 | 26.93% |
| Vic Vickers | 6,102 | 5.79% |
| Michael Corey | 1,496 | 1.42% |
| Roderic Sikma | 1,133 | 1.08% |
| Rich Wanda | 732 | 0.69% |
| Gerald Heikes | 599 | 0.57% |
| Totals | 105,326 | 100.00% |
[edit] General election
With 100% of precincts reporting and a majority of the absentee and mail-in ballots counted, challenger Begich holds a slight lead of 3,953 votes. Incumbent Stevens had held a lead of over 3,000 votes after election night, but a tally of nearly 60,000 absentee and mail-in ballots released on November 12 erased that lead and reduced the vote margin separating the candidates to less than 0.5%,[24] with further counting, released on November 18, increasing the margin to more than 1% in favor of Begich. On November 19, 2008, Stevens conceded to Begich.[25]
| United States Senate election in Alaska, 2008[26] | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | Percentage | |||
| Democratic | Mark Begich | 151,767 | 47.77% | |||
| Republican | Ted Stevens (incumbent) | 147,814 | 46.52% | |||
| Alaskan Independence | Bob Bird | 13,197 | 4.15% | |||
| Libertarian | Fredrick Haase | 2,483 | 0.78% | |||
| Independent | Ted Gianoutsos | 1,385 | 0.44% | |||
| Independent | Write-in candidates | 1,077 | 0.34% | |||
| Valid votes | 317,723 | 97.06% | ||||
| Invalid or blank votes | 9,618 | 2.94% | ||||
| Totals | 327,341 | 100.00% | ||||
| Voter turnout | 66.03% | |||||
| Democratic gain from Republican | ||||||
[edit] See also
[edit] References
- ^ Kate Phillips, G.O.P. Leader Maps Senate Elections The New York Times, June 13, 2008
- ^ 2008 Primary Election Information Division of Elections from the Alaska Secretary of State
- ^ Race Ratings Chart: Senate CQ Politics
- ^ 2008 Senate Race Ratings The Cook Political Report, October 9, 2008
- ^ 2008 Senate Ratings The Rothenberg Political Report, September 29, 2008
- ^ Alaska Senator Found Guilty of Lying About Gifts, New York Times, October 27, 2008
- ^ "Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens found guilty of lying about gifts from contractor". Los Angeles Times (2008-10-27). Retrieved on 2008-10-27.
- ^ Yardley, William. "Senator Stevens hanging by a thread in Alaska." The New York Times, November 5, 2008. Retrieved on 2008-11-05/
- ^ "Stevens loses Alaska Senate seat to Democrat", Associated Press, MSNBC (November 18, 2008). Retrieved on November 18, 2008.
- ^ "Ted Stevens -- and Senate GOP -- In Trouble", The Nation (2007-07-30). Retrieved on 29 May 2007.
- ^ Josh Kraushaar, "Palin popularity buoys Stevens", Politico.com, September 10, 2008.
- ^ John Bresnahan, "Jury: Stevens guilty on seven counts", Politico, October 27, 2008.
- ^ Glenn Thrush and Daniel W. Reilly, "Stevens vows to remain a candidate", Politico, October 27, 2008.
- ^ Aaron Blake (2008-02-27). "Begich’s entry tees up first tough reelection race in Stevens's career". The Hill.
- ^ "Founder of Republican Moderate Party of Alaska Will Run as a Democrat for US Senate". Ballot Access News (2007-12-03).
- ^ Fredrick "David" Haase - Libertarian. The Anchorage Daily News. August 19, 2008.
- ^ DavidforAlaska.com.
- ^ Anchorage developer plans to challenge Stevens for Senate seat Fairbanks Daily News-Miner December 22, 2007. Retrieved December 26, 2007
- ^ Stevens Sinks in Alaska Senate Race Political Wire August 2, 2008
- ^ Newcomer candidate says he can beat Stevens Anchorage Daily News 2008-07-29.
- ^ "50% still regard Stevens favorably and don’t want him to resign." Alaska Daily News 2008-07-31.
- ^ Michael O'Brien, "Stevens wins primary, Young locked in a nail biter", TheHill.com, August 27, 2008.
- ^ a b "Official Primary Election Results" (PDF). State of Alaska: Division of Elections (2008-09-18). Retrieved on 2008-12-03.
- ^ Cockerham, Sean (2008-11-13). "Begich takes lead in latest vote count". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved on 2008-11-13.
- ^ http://aprn.org/2008/11/19/stevens-concedes-begich-savors-first-day-of-senate-elect-status/ Alaska Public Radio Network retrieved on 11-19-08
- ^ "Official General Election Results" (PDF). State of Alaska: Division of Elections (2008-12-03). Retrieved on 2008-12-03.
[edit] External links
- Alaska Division of Elections
- U.S. Congress candidates for Alaska at Project Vote Smart
- Alaska U.S. Senate race from Congress.org
- Alaska, U.S. Senate from CQ Politics
- Alaska U.S. Senate race from The Green Papers
- Alaska U.S. Senate from OurCampaigns.com
- Alaska U.S. Senate race from 2008 Race Tracker
- Campaign contributions from OpenSecrets.org
- Stevens vs Begich graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
- 2008 Election from The Anchorage Daily News newspaper
[edit] Official campaign websites
- Mark Begich, Democratic candidate
- Rocky Caldero, Democratic candidate
- Dave Cuddy, Republican candidate
- Ted Gianoutsos, Veterans Party candidate
- Ray Metcalfe, Democratic candidate
- Rick Sikma, Republican candidate
- Ted Stevens, Republican incumbent
- Vic Vickers, Republican candidate
- Frank Vondersaar, Democratic candidate
